SWODY2
SPC AC 171728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2008
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE ON
MONDAY. WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS EASTWARD OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE ADJACENT GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES...AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
FARTHER SOUTH...WELL REMOVED FROM THE MEAN
WESTERLIES...CLOSED/CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES.
...UPSTATE NY/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NY/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE PRIMARY/INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOUNTAINS AND/OR ALONG A
POSSIBLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WITH A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INCREASING FLOW FIELDS ALOFT AND
EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE/FRONTAL FORCING WILL
SUPPORT A STEADILY INCREASING SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...POTENTIALLY WITH A WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE.
...SOUTH FL...
LATEST NHC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TROPICAL STORM FAY MAY STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FL KEYS/WESTERN
FL COAST ON MONDAY. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO EXIST
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT-FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY FOR A
RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTH FL...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
...WA/ORE...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD WA/ORE ON
MONDAY...WITH ONE OR MORE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION. STRENGTHENING/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SOME WELL-ORGANIZED
TSTMS...INCLUDING MULTICELLS AND SOME HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK
IN SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.
...EASTERN NM/WEST TX...
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES ON MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND
RISK WILL AGAIN EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST TX AMIDST PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
TRAJECTORIES...PRIMARILY ON THE WEST EDGE OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TX EARLY IN THE DAY.
..GUYER.. 08/17/2008
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