SWODY3
SPC AC 010727
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN TO DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD...AS THE ERN U.S. TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD INTO THE NWRN
ATLANTIC...AND THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE IS FLATTENED A BIT AS SEVERAL
SMALL-SCALE FEATURES PROGRESS ANTICYCLONICALLY EWD AROUND THE NRN
SIDE OF THIS FEATURE.
PERSISTENT WLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A
SURFACE LOW OVER SD/NEB...WITH WARM ADVECTION NE OF THIS LOW AND ELY
UPSLOPE FLOW TO ITS NW BOTH LIKELY TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS.
...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA -- ACCOMPANIED BY A LINGERING SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS ONGOING STORMS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...CAPPING SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN HINDER NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON DESPITE STRONG DESTABILIZATION.
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS SLIGHTLY WITH THE CONTINUED PASSAGE OF
WEAK FEATURES MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY EWD...STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON -- MAINLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT
EXPECTED TO LIE W-E FROM NRN NEB/SRN SD EWD INTO IA...AND THEN SEWD
ALONG THE MS RIVER. STORMS MAY THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET DIURNALLY INCREASES. ALONG WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY...PERSISTENT BELT OF ENHANCED WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...WITH SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
MODEST MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT ELY UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ENHANCED WLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS. WHILE A SECONDARY AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR AS FAR
W AS SWRN MT...THE MAIN THREAT IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
WY...SERN MT...AND WRN SD AND VICINITY. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
EVENING AS ELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.
...THE SOUTHEAST...
MOIST/DESTABILIZING AFTERNOON AIRMASS INVOF LINGERING SURFACE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SCATTERED STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS
FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. THREAT
WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE...DECREASING AFTER PEAK HEATING.
..GOSS.. 08/01/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment