SWODY3
SPC AC 100724
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS DURING
THE DAY THREE PERIOD...FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE E AND
RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. MORE SPECIFICALLY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL DIG SEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES WHILE AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVES SSEWD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH IA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO
THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE ARKLATEX EWD ALONG
A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A
SECONDARY WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP SWD FROM MN TOWARD
THE LOWER MO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...RIDGING INITIALLY OVER THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
FALLING PRESSURES IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
ELY/SELY FLOW...EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER BENEATH THE ERN EDGE OF STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
NOTABLE IMPULSES CRESTING MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS DURING THE PERIOD.
BUT...THE ABOVEMENTIONED RESPONSE TO THE LEE TROUGHING/CYCLOGENESIS
WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE TERRAIN/UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES THROUGH
THE LOWEST 3 KM WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
LONGER-LIVED...ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.
...ERN NEB/IA...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A SMALL CORRIDOR OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON INVOF
WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN CONCERT WITH
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A
FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
...GULF COAST STATES...
WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE QUITE MOIST...LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON. ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DIURNAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. UPSCALE GROWTH OF INDIVIDUAL
STORMS INTO CLUSTERS APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD.. 08/10/2008
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