SWODY3
SPC AC 150710
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSION OF
UPPER LOW SEWD ACROSS CO INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN EXACT LOCATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS
IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH UPPER FEATURE INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES...WITH STRONGER FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY ACROSS N TX.
THE NAM IS NOTABLY WEAKER AT MID-HIGH LEVELS ACROSS N TX WITH CENTER
OF UPPER CIRCULATION HOLDING OVER NERN NM. EITHER SCENARIO WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF
N TX INTO OK. THE MAIN QUESTION DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD WILL BE THE
EXTENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION BENEATH WEAK-MODEST
MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...WHERE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
..DARROW.. 08/15/2008
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