Monday, August 18, 2008

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180717
SWODY3
SPC AC 180714

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NWRN U.S./NRN PLAINS...

18/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONGER SHEARED AREAS OF
THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-STARVED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
INTENSITY OF ANY HIGH BASED STORMS THAT WOULD OTHERWISE EASILY
ROTATE/ORGANIZE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. LATER...PERHAPS DURING
THE DAY4-5 TIME FRAME...MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

...SERN U.S...

REMNANTS OF FAY SHOULD BE INLAND BY DAY3 OVER NRN FL/SRN GA.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENHANCED ACROSS
THIS REGION...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO OUTLOOK SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
A BETTER IDEA OF BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY ARE KNOWN. ANY
SUNSHINE ACROSS THIS AREA COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..DARROW.. 08/18/2008

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