SWOD48
SPC AC 100822
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE GFS HAS NOW TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION OF AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS INTO MS
AND OH VALLEYS ON DAYS 5 /THU AUG 14TH/ THROUGH 8 /SUN AUG 17TH/.
SUCH A PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A SEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND THEN MORE EWD THROUGH THE
MS/OH VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR A SEQUENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES.
SOME RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN...NAMELY WITH THE GFS. THEREFORE...NO
REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A SIMILAR PATTERN EVOLUTION
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS...ONE OR MORE AREAS MAY HAVE TO BE
INCLUDED IN THE NEXT EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
..MEAD.. 08/10/2008
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