SWOD48
SPC AC 270900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2008
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD. THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SATURDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVING THE RIDGE
INTO THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY. AT THAT TIME...THE MODELS DEVELOP A
RELATIVELY HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. THIS
SHOULD ENCOURAGE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
LATE THIS WEEKEND AS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET SETS UP. HOWEVER...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE THE PLAINS MOIST AXIS. A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
TROUGH REMAINS THE QUESTIONABLE. THE RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT COULD
BE DELAYED IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING SLOWER THAN THE MODEL
FORECASTS.
..BROYLES.. 08/27/2008
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