Friday, August 29, 2008

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 290733
SWOD48
SPC AC 290732

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP UPPER TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITION
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH DAYS 4/5
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BUT...LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN 30% DAY-1 EQUIVALENT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES PRECLUDES AN OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE FORECAST LANDFALL OF GUSTAV /SEE LATEST NHC GUIDANCE FOR
DETAILS/...TORNADOES WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AT LEAST DAY
4/MONDAY AND DAY 5/TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND
LIKELY THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH REGION. HOWEVER...INHERENT
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE POSITIONING/TIMING OF GUSTAV PRECLUDES A
SPATIAL DELINEATION OF SEVERE/TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 08/29/2008

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