SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050150
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-050315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0850 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN IL...SRN LM...EXTREME SRN LOWER
MI...NRN INDIANA...NWRN-CENTRAL OH...ERN IA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 806...807...
VALID 050150Z - 050315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
806...807...CONTINUES.
DAMAGING MCS AND POTENTIAL DERECHO EVENT SO FAR IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SWATH OF DAMAGING WIND FROM RFD-CHI AREAS -- INCLUDING MEASURED 51
KT GUST AT MDW AT 106Z...AND 82 KT GUST AT 125Z AT C-MAN BUOY ON LM.
ACTIVITY SHOULD PROCEED ESEWD ACROSS REMAINDER WW THEN INTO
PORTIONS EXTREME SRN LOWER MI AND OH. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED
BEFORE 03Z.
WELL-DEVELOPED BOW ECHO SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH VORTICITY-RICH
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY REMAINING FROM EARLY-DAY OUTFLOW. THIS BOUNDARY
STILL IS ANALYZED IN WNW-ESE ORIENTATION AND MOVING SLOWLY NWD
ACROSS NWRN/E-CENTRAL INDIANA. ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
GRADIENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM PREFERRED CORRIDOR FOR
FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF MCS...AND GREATEST ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SBCINH
WILL INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW
LAYER. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WILL REMAIN ROOTED AT OR
NEAR SFC FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND STRONG FORCED ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM. DAMAGING GUSTS
SHOULD CONTINUE...ALONG WITH THREAT OF OCCASIONAL/BRIEF TORNADOES
FROM QLCS SPINUPS AND BOOKEND VORTICES. STG-SVR WIND ALSO MAY
CONTINUE FOR UP TO HALF AN HOUR BEHIND LEADING SURGE OF
MCS...ASSOCIATED WITH REAR-INFLOW JET.
INITIATION ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BECOME LESS PROBABLE
WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER TO ITS S UNDERGOES GRADUAL DIABATIC
COOLING...AND SLOPE OF COLD POOL NEAR BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE SHALLOW.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA ZONE -- WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC --
MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NE ATOP COLD POOL...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES
2000-3000 J/KG REMAINING IN ENVIRONMENT OF AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY SUCH POST-MCS ACTIVITY
WOULD BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
..EDWARDS.. 08/05/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...
41338900 41438806 41658768 42108713 42088611 41638347
41028315 39998304 39718421
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