SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091746
MTZ000-IDZ000-091845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2056
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NERN ID / WRN-SWRN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 091746Z - 091845Z
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. A WW IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE /
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD
ACROSS NERN ID INTO PARTS OF WRN MT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS STRONG DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF WRN MT
AHEAD OF ONGOING STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER PARTS OF THE
BITTEROOT RANGE. THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY AS OF 1745Z IS A STORM
OVER CUSTER CO. IDAHO AND A SUB-SEVERE SEGMENT LOCATED 25 MI SSW OF
MSO MOVING NEWD AT 30 KTS.
DESPITE WEAKER FLOW CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF WRN MT PER RECENT TFX
VWP DATA...RECENT CBX VWP SHOWED STRONGER DEEP FLOW /40 KTS 0-6 KM/
ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING INTO THE REGION.
SEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE CHARACTERIZED BY
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S PER RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS. AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE SINGLE-MULTICELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT/CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS CONVECTIVE MODE TRANSITIONS TO MORE ORGANIZED STORMS /BOW
SEGMENTS AND A SUPERCELL OR TWO/. DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR
TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...WHERE WINDS REMAIN
RELATIVELY BACKED AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS TEMPORARILY ENLARGED...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..SMITH.. 08/09/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...
44511514 45441589 47131527 48301453 48741237 48351124
47381070 45751128 44701246 44031355 44021413
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