Sunday, August 10, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2064

ACUS11 KWNS 101706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101705
NYZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-101830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE DELMARVA PEN INTO LWR HUDSON
VALLEY/PARTS SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 817...

VALID 101705Z - 101830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 817
CONTINUES.

SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM AS DESTABILIZATION
PROGRESSES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...INTO EASTERN DELAWARE/MARYLAND COASTAL AREAS...NEAR AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. THIS IS WHERE A BETTER INFLOW OF RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE CHESAPEAKE/DELAMARVA
REGION EXISTS...BENEATH A STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WHICH
IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW. OUTFLOW FROM AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO DELAWARE...APPEARS LIKELY TO
REINFORCE AND STALL THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AND...THICKENING CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY INTO THE GREATER
NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA.

..KERR.. 08/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

37697513 37777581 38427586 38907629 39377663 40837566
42227480 43347486 43667434 43707316 43407274 41547295
39637374

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