SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101810
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-101945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN MT / WRN DKTS / NERN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101810Z - 101945Z
PARTS OF SERN MT / WRN DKTS / NERN WY ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT HR.
RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING STORMS IN NERN WY
EXTENDING NWD INTO SERN MT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER WY. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR MLS
WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. RICHER MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S/ IS LOCATED E OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE...WHERE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS
DEVELOPED /2000 J/KG MLCAPE/. AS A RESULT...STORMS WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO HIGHER THETA-E AIR. DESPITE MARGINAL
DEEP FLOW ALOFT PER RECENT AREA VWP/S...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO STRONG INSOLATION THE PAST FEW HOURS
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT. THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AS WELL.
..SMITH.. 08/10/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...
43430458 44590499 45860549 46360557 47000525 47090422
46560280 45810135 45280140 44730242 43490287 43180391
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