Friday, August 15, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2095

ACUS11 KWNS 151651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151650
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-151815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2095
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...VA/WRN AND CENTRAL NC/NRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 151650Z - 151815Z

NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

BROAD BELT OF MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ERN U.S. IS
YIELDING A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL
ORGANIZATION. STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS STRONG HEATING COMBINES WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO YIELD FURTHER AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES REVEAL 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE
ACROSS PARTS OF VA/NC/SC...AND CU FIELD ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO INCREASE. GIVEN AMBIENT SHEAR...STORMS
SHOULD BECOME SEVERE SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION. WITH A FAIRLY RAPID
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ALSO EXPECTED AFTER INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
-- WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING E OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE/EXPAND RAPIDLY
OVER A FAIRLY LARGE AREA -- LIKELY REQUIRING NEW WW ISSUANCE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..GOSS.. 08/15/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

34767981 34288124 35158276 36708084 38167831 37597664
35517847

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