MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2106

ACUS11 KWNS 172032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172032
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-172200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NM AND SERN CO AND EXTREME WRN OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 172032Z - 172200Z

STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN CO...NRN NM
AND INTO THE FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE. ONLY A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF A
WW ISSUANCE DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

AT 20Z...MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED W OF COS AND MOVING SLOWLY
SEWD. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
RANGED FROM -14C NEAR THE CENTER TO -10C ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NM
AND SERN CO. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE NOT PARTICULARLY
WARM...THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WERE RESULTING IN MLCAPES FROM
500 TO 1000 J/KG. WINDS IN THE LOWER 3 KM WERE WEAK...THOUGH SPEED
SHEAR IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS WAS RESULTING IN 30-40 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NRN NM AND 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS SERN CO. DESPITE
THE WEAK INSTABILITY...THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NM...WILL FAVOR SOME
BRIEFLY ROTATING STORMS AND SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL...THOUGH THE LIMITED BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING/INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THE THREAT MAY NOT BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A WW.

..IMY.. 08/17/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

35480602 36510668 37330481 38100364 38760249 37340201
35740330

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