SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172336
NMZ000-180100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 172336Z - 180100Z
TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. BUT...THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE PIVOTS THROUGH THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE COLORADO CUT-OFF LOW...STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW FIELD CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS... INCLUDING
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ALSO CONTINUE TO FORM IN WEAK TO
MODERATE LATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...IS ENHANCING ACTIVITY...AND
CONTRIBUTING TO STORM-SCALE DYNAMIC FORCING WHICH MAY MAINTAIN AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT FURTHER INCREASE IN THE SEVERE
THREAT SEEMS LOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A ZONE OF WEAK LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION NEAR/EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
INTO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE COULD SUPPORT
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD OR CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION BY THE EVENING
HOURS. BUT...LAPSE RATES TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND THERE IS LITTLE TO INDICATE FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH LOW-LEVEL
PROFILES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO SOMEWHAT COOL AND
MOIST...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND THE CONTINUING RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL APPEARS LOW.
..KERR.. 08/17/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
33020634 34110663 35270620 36040534 36500442 36280322
35520346 34110452 33090445 32450516 32590577
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