Monday, August 18, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2109

ACUS11 KWNS 181215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181214
FLZ000-181315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181214Z - 181315Z

A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING FOR PARTS OF SRN FL
INCLUDING THE KEYS. IF MORE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE ROTATION COUPLETS
DEVELOP...THEN A WW WOULD BECOME WARRANTED.

AT 12Z...REGIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A MORE
PERSISTENT NW-SE ORIENTED RAIN BAND ALONG THE NERN THROUGH ERN
PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM FAY...WITH THIS BAND EXTENDING FROM 70
SE MIA TO ABOUT 155 ESE MTH. VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND LIGHTNING
WERE OBSERVED ALONG THIS BAND WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION OF STORM
ROTATION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH A FEW OF THE EMBEDDED STRONGER
CELLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED A RECENT INCREASE IN 0-1 KM SHEAR
VALUES /15-20 KT/ IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BAND. NORTHERN MOST CELL
THAT SHOWED WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION WAS LOCATED 70 SE MIA...WITH A
NWWD MOVEMENT OF 35 KT RESULTING IN THIS CELL REACHING THE SERN FL
COAST /VICINITY MIA/ BETWEEN 1330-14Z.

LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AS T.S. FAY APPROACHES THE FL
KEYS RESULTING IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
ATTENDANT TO THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.

..PETERS.. 08/18/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

25908178 26298098 26287995 25348013 24718063 24468175
24698163 25068120 25448135

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