SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190654
OKZ000-TXZ000-191000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CENTRAL OK...EXTREME N CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 190654Z - 191000Z
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER SRN OK THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL 6 HOUR TOTALS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 10
INCHES. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER N INTO
CENTRAL OK.
A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION IS UNFOLDING OVER S CENTRAL OK
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCAL RADAR ESTIMATES AND OK MESONET
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN
THE PAST 3-4 HRS A COUPLE OF SPOTS NEAR BURKBURNETT TX AND WAURIKA
OK. THIS AREA IS NEAR THE SRN FLANK OF A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
WAA ALONG AND N OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER.
ASCENT WITH THE WAA IS AUGMENTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL LOW NEAR CDS...AND A SMALLER
SCALE EMBEDDED MCV NEAR SPS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT INFLUX OF NEAR 70
F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS...PW VALUES OF 1.80 TO 2.00 INCHES...AND
MUCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG...EXPECT VERY EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST/REGENERATE IN THE SAME AREAS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. STORM PROPAGATION AND RELATIVELY WEAK MEAN WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BACKBUILDING/QUASI-STATIONARY STORM
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND MINIMAL
COLD POOL GENERATION. WITH LOCAL RAINFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR...ADDITIONAL STORM TOTALS OF 6-10 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY IN SRN
OK.
..THOMPSON.. 08/19/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
35339736 34209699 33839727 33809792 33809843 34209878
35209898 35659845 35739777
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