SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200356
FLZ000-200530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 843...
VALID 200356Z - 200530Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 843 CONTINUES.
WW 843 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 05Z. BUT...
CHANGES IN INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL NEAR
NORTHERN FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
WEAKENING TRENDS TO FAY...COUPLED WITH THE COASTAL APPROACH OF ITS
LOWER/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...HAVE RESULTED IN DIMINISHING
TORNADIC POTENTIAL OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS LIKELY TO MIGRATE
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF MELBOURNE...JUST NORTH OF VERO BEACH DURING THE
04-06Z TIME FRAME. AND...LATEST TRACK PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
FAVORABLE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RISK FOR TORNADOES
WITH INLAND SPIRALING CONVECTIVE BANDS/CELLS NORTH/ NORTHWEST OF THE
CIRCULATION MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...PARTICULARLY NEAR
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF MELBOURNE. BUT...BARRING
SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
FAY...TORNADO POTENTIAL INLAND OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
PROBABLY WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL SYSTEM CURVES BACK TOWARD THE
COAST...NOW FORECASTED FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
..KERR.. 08/20/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...
28668092 28908076 28978003 28647934 27547863 26567858
25807877 25137962 26067913 26877906 27427931 28027958
27998023 28008045 28238081
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