SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220727
NDZ000-220900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/NE ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 220727Z - 220900Z
IT APPEARS THAT ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED...OR RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. SO...A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. BUT...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
A STRENGTHENING DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS/EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
...COUPLED WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...APPEARS TO BE
SUPPORTING RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK.
AS THIS FORCING SPREADS EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN NOW 09-10Z...STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
PERSIST...PERHAPS BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN FURTHER...AS IT ENCOUNTERS
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AREA/GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SOUTH/WEST OF DEVILS LAKE. IF THIS
OCCURS...DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREADS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST OR TWO CAPABLE
OF REACHING THE SURFACE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DESPITE THE
PRESENCE THE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER.
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE STRONGER FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS THIS OCCURS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH.
..KERR.. 08/22/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
47790148 48240081 48439992 48369899 47779833 47299845
47109897 46969982 46960085
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