SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221359
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-221600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0859 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN GA...EXTREME NRN FL...EXTREME SRN SC.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221359Z - 221600Z
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE FOR TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND FROM
RELATIVELY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS -- SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE LTG IN VERY WARM/MOIST LOW-MIDLEVEL
ENVIRONMENT.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE N THROUGH E OF
CENTER...AS SAMPLED BY LATEST VWP DATA FROM JAX NWWD ACROSS SRN GA
-- WITH 0-1 KM SRH REACHING MAX NEAR 500 J/KG OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN GA
AND DECREASING RADIALLY INWARD AND OUTWARD FROM THERE...WITH RESPECT
TO TS CENTER. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS SO FAR HAVE BEEN COMBINATION OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND LACK OF FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE. EACH SHOULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
JAX/CHS RAOBS WERE SPACED TOO FAR APART TO SAMPLE DRY SLOT APPARENT
IN MOISTURE CHANNEL AND IR IMAGERY WRAPPING AROUND INNER-MIDDLE NERN
QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION -- ACROSS SERN GA AND EXTENDING SEWD
OFFSHORE NERN FL. ASSOCIATED THIN BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER -- APPARENT
IN VIS IMAGERY -- MAY PERMIT JUST ENOUGH DIABATIC SFC WARMING TO
BOOST SFC TEMPS BY A FEW DEG...AND THEREFORE INTRODUCE AT LEAST MRGL
MLCAPE TO NEARLY SATURATED/MOIST-ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WHERE BUOYANT MARINE AIR
MASS ALREADY HAS PENETRATED. THIS PROCESS...COMBINED WITH WWD
TRANSLATION OF CENTER AND THEREFORE OF MOST FAVORABLY SHEARED NERN
SEMICIRCLE...MAY SUPPORT EXTENSION OF POTENTIAL FARTHER WWD OVER GA
DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PERHAPS AS FAR S AS INNERMOST BAND
ACROSS EXTREME NRN AND NERN FL.
REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR FCST GUIDANCE AND TROPICAL
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR FAY.
..EDWARDS.. 08/22/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
30108136 30258189 30408261 30408348 30748384 32398385
32468172 32238062 31868095 31478117 30938140 30668145
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