SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231535
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-231730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN FL PENINSULA TO EXTREME NRN
FL...CENTRAL/ERN PANHANDLE OF FL...CENTRAL/SRN GA...EXTREME SERN AL.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 857...
VALID 231535Z - 231730Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 857 CONTINUES.
SPORADIC MESOCYCLONE/TORNADO POTENTIAL PERSISTS WITH INNER BANDS OF
TS FAY ACROSS CURRENT WW AREA...PRIMARILY INVOF FL COASTAL BEND
INLAND ACROSS ERN PANHANDLE INTO SWRN GA. SFC WARMING SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK/GRADUAL BENEATH THICK CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BANDS.
HOWEVER...INFLOW OF EXTREMELY MOIST GULF AIR MASS -- CHARACTERIZED
BY GPS DERIVED PW VALUES APCHG 2.75 INCH AROUND TLH -- SHOULD YIELD
MLCAPES UP TO ABOUT 500 J/KG PER MODIFIED TLH RAOB. BUOYANCY
DIMINISHES INLAND WITH RELATIVE COOL POCKET ANALYZED INVOF FL/GA
BORDER NE TLH...BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE NWD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS
BEING MORE BACKED BENEATH SOMEWHAT STRONGER 850 MB FLOW OVER GA.
ANOTHER AREA WITH BRIEF/SPORADIC TORNADO POTENTIAL -- WHICH IS BEING
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW -- ADJOINS NRN EDGE OF WW 857...EXTENDING
INTO SWRN/S-CENTRAL GA...AND EVENTUALLY EXTREME SERN AL AS FAY
TRANSLATES WWD. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THERMAL AXIS FROM SAV AREA
WSWWD TOWARD DHN. THIS CORRESPONDS TO SWATH OF CLOUD BREAKS AND
THINNESS EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN
EXTENT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SAMPLED BY 12Z CHS RAOB.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS SERN AL AND SWRN GA -- WITH
0-1 KM SRH COMMONLY 300-500 J/KG BASED ON VARIOUS STORM MOTIONS
INPUT INTO REGIONAL VWP. SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT
ACROSS SERN GA AND WITH TIME OVER S-CENTRAL GA AS OBSERVED FIELD OF
50-60 KT LLJ WINDS SHIFTS WWD. BUOYANCY/SHEAR OVERLAP FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS LIKEWISE MAY EXPAND/SHIFT ACROSS SWRN GA INTO SERN AL
THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. OFFSETTING/LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
WEAKER SFC CONVERGENCE...AND LESS-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES THAN
FARTHER S ACROSS EXISTING WW.
..EDWARDS.. 08/23/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
29818503 30588494 31338537 31998535 32588498 32938425
32428286 32008231 31608228 31138237 30448252 28548263
29178279 29128303 29528338 29688340 29768363 29968367
30108402 30048431 29918437 29768461 29608493
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