SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251813
CAZ000-252115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA MTNS AND VALLEYS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 251813Z - 252115Z
HEAVY RAIN WITH HOURLY RATES OVER 2 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY WITH TSTMS
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS/INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SRN
CA THROUGH 21Z. MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS...SO A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE UP THE COLORADO RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING
HAS PROGRESSED WWD INTO THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND INTO THE LEE SIDE
OF THE MTNS OF SRN CA WHERE SFC DWPTS IN THE MID 70S WERE
COMMONPLACE AT 18Z. IN ADDITION...DEEP ENELY FLOW WAS EVIDENT
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 KM /ABOVE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LAYER/ FROM THE
VWP DATA FROM SAN DIEGO AND IS LIKELY A RESULT OF AFFECTS FROM T.S
JULIO. AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE SURGE...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE NOW OVER THE AREA EVIDENT BY EARLY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER THE MTNS OF SRN CA /10 AM PDT/. RECENT OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND DECREASING CINH.
ALTHOUGH TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY POSE A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL GIVEN RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN. GOES
SOUNDER DATA INDICATES PW VALUES OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE SAN DIEGO
MTNS/DESERTS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE VALLEYS/COASTAL AREAS OF
SRN CA. MODERATE CONVERGENCE AIDED BY THE MONSOON SURGE ON THE ERN
SIDE OF THE SRN CA MTNS COUPLED WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ON THE WRN
SLOPES/INTERIOR VALLEYS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS
FROM THE ERN LA BASIN REGION/INLAND EMPIRE SWD TO THE MTNS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. NEARLY STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS DUE TO WEAK WIND
FIELDS COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN RATES OVER 2 INCHES. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL AID
IN TRANSITION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT LOCATION OVER TIME...WITH
STORM DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL VALLEYS WHERE
CINH IS GREATER.
..CROSBIE.. 08/25/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...VEF...SGX...LOX...
32581667 33151693 33761729 33971759 34181817 34361843
34601841 34431700 34241663 33251631 32671616
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