SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270724
MNZ000-SDZ000-270900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 270724Z - 270900Z
ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF STORMS EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DIMINISH. ACTIVITY...BASED IN AN 850-700 MB MOIST LAYER...ABOVE A
RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...NOW BEGINNING TO LIFT THROUGH MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. AS THIS NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION
CONTINUES...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THE BAND OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO BY THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME. INCREASING INHIBITION
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA BY THAT TIME SHOULD BEGIN TO
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKEN/DIMINISHING TRENDS TO CONVECTION. BUT...UNTIL
THIS OCCURS...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODEST CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR...COULD PROMOTE THE
RISK FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
..KERR.. 08/27/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
48129147 46889219 45059335 43869484 43789625 44149678
44319702 44909697 46409520 47729481 49509510
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