MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2180

ACUS11 KWNS 280657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280656
NCZ000-VAZ000-280830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 280656Z - 280830Z

THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
REMAINS VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED/POSITIVELY BUOYANT...
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF A
WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT INTO THE CENTRAL
COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S. LATEST
RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG...AND THIS...PERHAPS COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE WITHIN BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...IS
CONTRIBUTING SCATTERED ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THERE IS LITTLE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PERSISTS
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...PERHAPS INTO SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA. BUT...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF APPRECIABLE
TORNADIC POTENTIAL ARE FOCUSED WITHIN A COOLER STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG THE WEAK WARM FRONT...IN THE PRESENCE
OF THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WAS ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY SUPPORT
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EARLIER STORM NORTH OF GOLDSBORO.
AND...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR/CROSSING THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA INTO THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BUT...THE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW.

..KERR.. 08/28/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

35797949 36367885 36787835 37097704 36897631 36117565
35437569 34657644 34177755 34037799 34507868 34827899
35197962 35567984

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