SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281909
MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-282045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...N AND CNTRL MN...NW WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281909Z - 282045Z
SCTD TSTMS DVLPG OVER N AND CNTRL MN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AS THEY TRANSLATE EWD INTO NW WI AND WRN LKSUP LATER THIS AFTN. WW
IS NOT EXPECTED.
SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S/NEAR 60F BENEATH H5 TEMPS OF MINUS 18
TO MINUS 20 DEG C COUPLED WITH STRONG INSOLATION HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
MODEST BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN /MLCAPES AROUND
1000 J PER KG/. MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES BELOW H7...LOW WBZ LEVELS
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL EASILY
BE PRODUCED WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
GREATER COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF TSTMS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS NC...NE AND
ECNTRL MN INTO FAR NW WI/WRN LKSUP REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 65+ KT H5 JET. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.
UPDATED 20Z OTLK WILL INCORPORATE A SMALL 15 PERCENT HAIL THREAT
OVER PORTIONS OF NE MN AND PERHAPS FAR NW WI/WRN LKSUP REGION.
..RACY.. 08/28/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...
49709479 50239194 49188969 48628919 47478954 46169049
44759174 44229329 44029417 44199515 45529547 47259575
48369548
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