SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281948
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-282115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...N MO...SE IA...NW IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 281948Z - 282115Z
SFC-BASED TSTM INITIATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AFT 21Z FROM NE KS
NEWD INTO N MO AND THEN PERHAPS INTO SE IA/NW IL BY EVENING. A WW
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 21Z.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING SEWD AND AT 19Z EXTENDED
FROM E IA SWWD INTO THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA THEN INTO CNTRL KS.
STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WAS SHIFTING NEWD INTO
THE KANSAS CITY AREA INTO NRN MO ALONG NE EXTENT OF A LOW-LVL
THETA-E RIDGE. WITH THE AREA EXPERIENCING FULL SUNSHINE...SFC TEMPS
HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE LWR-MID 90S AND LATEST ASCENDING ACARS
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN UPR 90S CONVECTIVE TEMP. A COUPLE
MORE DEGREES RISE IN THE SFC TEMP AND CONTINUED MODEST MASS
CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SFC-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFT 21Z
VCNTY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NE KS INTO NRN MO.
MEANWHILE...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE OF
IA/MO/NEB MAY ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ALONG THE
MO/IA BORDER THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR...ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LVL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE CORN BELT...WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE KS/NEB AND
IA/MO BORDER...SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM WHERE SFC-BASED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. NONETHELESS...MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID UPDRAFT ACCELERATION WITH INITIAL CELLS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING INTO SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN MO/SE IA.
THIS EVENING...ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ENE ALONG THE APCHG FRONT
INTO SE IA/NW IL WITH DMGG WINDS/HAIL REMAINING A THREAT.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ON THE SW FLANK INTO EC
KS/WCNTRL MO WITHIN STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS.
..RACY.. 08/28/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP...
40929056 40039104 38849311 38469448 38399605 39309666
39719584 41119280 41619095 41599008
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