Saturday, August 30, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2188

ACUS11 KWNS 301906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301906
FLZ000-302030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MID/LWR FL KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301906Z - 302030Z

RAINBANDS ASSOCD WITH HRCN GUSTAV WILL ROTATE NWD THROUGH THE FL
STRAITS AND INTO THE MID/LWR FL KEYS THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLD
TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS WILL BE LIKELY AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY
LATE AFTN.

KEY WEST VWP HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE LLVL WIND PROFILES
SINCE THIS MORNING AS GUSTAV CONTINUES A NWWD TREK AND DEEPENS.
PROMINENT RAINBAND STRADDLING THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL CONTINUE NWD
INTO THE MID/LWR KEYS THROUGH THE EVE. EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS
HAVE RECENTLY EXHIBITED VERY BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH MODEST
LLVL ROTATION.

WATERSPOUT/TORNADO RISKS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THIS EVE AS
THE NEAR SFC FLOW BACKS TO A MORE NE COMPONENT...RESULTING IN
ENHANCED 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL OCCUR FROM LATE AFTN INTO TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
BANDS ROTATE NWD FROM CUBA AND THE ENVELOPE OF STRONGER BUOYANCY
WITHIN THE ERN PERIPHERY OF GUSTAV ARRIVES.

..RACY.. 08/30/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...

25048262 25198162 24838090 24348085 23838119 23788182
23848241 24018296 24538313 24938289

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