SWODY1
SPC AC 021230
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2008
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF
LA...AR...MS...
...SRN-CENTRAL AR/ERN-CENTRAL LA/MS...
GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW NWWD PROGRESS INTO/ACROSS NERN TX
THIS PERIOD...WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING --
PARTICULARLY AROUND NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN OUTER RAIN BANDS EAST OF THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES SLOWLY NWWD.
WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE STORM IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. TORNADO THREAT WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE TODAY AS CLOUD-BREAKS DEVELOP BETWEEN THE RAIN
BANDS ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE. INITIAL THREAT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED FROM SE LA/SRN MS THROUGH CNTRL MS...BUT EXPAND NWWD INTO
NE LA AND AR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
...WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SSWWD INTO IA/NRN MO...
SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER AND EAST OF THE
NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO IA.
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND MAJORITY OF MID LEVEL COOLING SHOULD REMAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR MAY SPREAD ATOP THE FRONT TO
SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END AFTER SUNSET
AS THE AIRMASS/LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STABILIZE.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 09/02/2008
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