SWODY1
SPC AC 080053
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT SUN SEP 07 2008
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...
...CNTRL PLAINS...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE OVER SERN CO
WITH ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NRN
OK INTO NWRN AR. FARTHER N...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
TEMPORARILY STATIONARY FROM NERN CO EWD ACROSS NRN KS. THIS
SECONDARY BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH SWD TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD THROUGH MY/WY.
PROFILER DATA OVER SWRN KS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS IN THE 1-2 KM AGL LAYER SINCE AROUND 20Z AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ IS ENHANCED BY A DYNAMIC
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT THE TRANSPORT OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS NWD INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH
A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /REF. 00Z DNR
SOUNDING/...CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ELEVATED
ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ELEVATED TSTMS BY 03Z ALONG NOSE OF
STRENGTHENING LLJ FROM PARTS OF ERN CO EWD TO ONGOING ELEVATED
STORMS OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER CNTRL/ERN NM
APPARENTLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z ELP SOUNDING IS LIKELY QUITE REPRESENTATIVE
OF THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH 500 MB AND
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND
1000 J/KG. MOREOVER...THESE DATA ALSO SHOWED A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
ZONAL FLOW ABOVE 6 KM WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. AS SUCH...EXPECT TSTMS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS /NAMELY OVER PARTS OF SRN AND ERN NM INTO WRN TX/ WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD.. 09/08/2008
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