SWODY1
SPC AC 271249
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2008
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN BELT OF MODERATE WLYS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SW AND S CNTRL
CANADA AS RIDGE PERSISTS FROM THE GRT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS.
IMPULSE NOW OVER THE UPR MS VLY SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO WRN QUEBEC
EARLY SUNDAY...FORCING WRN NC CLOSED LOW TO LIFT NE TOWARD THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. COLD FRONT WITH MS VLY DISTURBANCE SHOULD
CONTINUE SE THROUGH WI/IA AND WEAKEN...WHILE WRN END OF BOUNDARY
STALLS OVER THE CNTRL PLNS.
...UPR MI/WI/IA...
A NARROW AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY /SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM THE CNTRL PLNS TO UPR MS VLY
TODAY...BENEATH LINGERING EML PLUME. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE
FRONT OVER WI...WHERE FRONTAL UPLIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SWWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT INTO SRN/ERN IA LIKELY
WILL BE LIMITED BY STRONGER EML CAP...WEAKER LARGE SCALE UVV...AND
WEAKER FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
WELL S OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...MODEST DEEP SHEAR SHOULD AT BEST
SUPPORT MULTICELLS. THERMODYNAMIC SETUP MAY...HOWEVER...YIELD A
COUPLE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND/OR STRONG GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVE.
...MID ATLANTIC...
AN AXIS OF WARM/VERY MOIST AIR HAS SPREAD N ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY REGION IN NERN QUADRANT OF NC UPR LOW. MODEST SFC HEATING AND
WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT BANDS/CLUSTERS
OF SLOWLY-MOVING CONVECTION/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY...DESPITE WEAK
LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE UPR SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WIND
FIELD SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DRIFT NEWD
AHEAD OF MS VLY TROUGH. AS A RESULT...HODOGRAPHS SHOULD REMAIN TOO
SMALL TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT FOR LOW LVL STORM ROTATION/ISOLD
TORNADOES.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 09/27/2008
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