SWODY1
SPC AC 091954
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2008
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AND ERN NC THROUGH
SE VA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN FL...
...CNTRL AND ERN NC THROUGH SERN VA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM VT SWWD THROUGH CNTRL PA...SE KY MIDDLE TN
AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NRN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ADVANCE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT. THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM SE VA SWWD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS...BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING MLCAPE TO
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE WITHIN
WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE NERN STATES REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THIS
AREA WITH MODEST PRE-FRONTAL BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-35 KT SUPPORTIVE
OF MOSTLY MULTICELLS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY
ROBUST GIVEN MODEST THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
...S FL...
THE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SRN
FL TONIGHT. VWP DATA SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR A
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THIS EVENING AS IKE CONTINUES WNWWD. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON IKE.
...NERN STATES...
TRENDS IN RADAR SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
FROM MAINE SWWD THROUGH NRN PA. VERY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR PERSISTS ACROSS MAINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER CONVECTION AND
LITTLE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED GIVEN WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS.
THEREFORE...ANY REMAINING SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED.
..DIAL.. 09/09/2008
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