SWODY1
SPC AC 091609
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT TUE SEP 09 2008
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND...NY/PA...AND SOUTHWARD THRU MID ATLANTIC STATES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTH FL...
...ERN U.S...
STRONG/SEVERE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY MOVING THRU SRN NEW
ENGLAND TRAILING SWWD TO DELMARVA. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL
TO THE W ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND PA...MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
UTILIZED BY THE SQUALL LINE. THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACCOMPANIED
BY 60-70KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...DO
SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THE PRIMARY WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL OCCUR WITH LEADING SQUALL LINE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE NEXT FEW HOURS CAN NOT PRECLUDE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
FURTHER S ACROSS SRN VA AND NC E OF APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE SHEAR
WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER...THE AIR MASS BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE. WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. STORMS
WILL INITIATE BOTH ALONG TRAILING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS VA AND
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER AND E OF APPALACHIANS. PRIMARY MODE WILL
BE MULTICELLULAR WITH DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR. WITH
WET BULB ZERO LEVELS BELOW 10K FEET...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER STORMS.
...FL...
HURRICANE IKE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS
WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. RISK OF TORNADOES
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ENDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER FL WEAKENS.
..HALES/SMITH.. 09/09/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment