SWODY1
SPC AC 021554
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2008
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FOR THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...
...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE REMNANTS OF TC GUSTAV WILL DRIFT NWWD FROM NW LA TO SE OK AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE IS MAINTAINED OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD FROM THE DAKOTAS TO MN AND ONTARIO.
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS AND VWP/S STILL SHOW A BELT OF 40-50 KT
SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-400 M2/S2 CO-LOCATED
WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM SE LA INTO CENTRAL MS.
LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY IS ALSO LARGEST IN THIS SAME CORRIDOR...THUS
EXPECT THE SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED TODAY
ACROSS MS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE THREAT AREA IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR EWD EXPANSION OF THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS DURING THE DAY NEAR THE SE MS/SW AL BORDER.
...ERN IA TO WI/WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS MN/WRN IA THIS MORNING AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARD WRN
ONTARIO. THE FRONT IS PRECEDED BY A CORRIDOR OF 68-70 F DEWPOINTS
AND SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES TO REACH
1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
POOR...THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR LAGS THE COLD
FRONT...AND THE ANAFRONTAL STRUCTURE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM THREAT IS MARGINAL AT BEST.
..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 09/02/2008
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