SWODY1
SPC AC 031623
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2008
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...
...LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV ARE CENTERED NEAR TXK AS OF MID MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DRIFT NWD/NNEWD TODAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING
NEWD OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WITH A MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GUSTAV REMNANTS ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF EVOLVING FROM A WARM CORE STRUCTURE TO MORE OF AN OPEN
BAROCLINIC WAVE AS FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE CYCLONE
FROM THE W.
THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND THIS MORNING HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL LA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TEND TO DRIFT EWD
AROUND THE S SIDE OF THE CYCLONE AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO FOCUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. VWP AND PROFILER HODOGRAPHS
SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED SOME SINCE
YESTERDAY...THOUGH THE STRONGEST FLOW/SHEAR MAY STILL EXIST BETWEEN
OBSERVING POINTS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE MS RIVER. THE
RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED BUOYANCY IS FEEDING INTO
THE CONVECTIVE BAND FROM THE NW GULF INTO SRN LA...AND WITHIN A
NARROW BELT OF CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL LA. FARTHER N...WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/RAIN HAVE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY...
DESPITE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE A ZONE
OF FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR
SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES FROM CENTRAL LA NWD ACROSS WRN MS
INTO SE AR TODAY. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BECOME MORE CONDITIONAL
TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD SRN MO.
...HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...
THE LOW LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY COOL/DRY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE
WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED UPSTREAM IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD OVER NRN UT/ERN ID/WRN WY. THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REACH THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN PHASE WITH
THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND SUPPORT SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
FOR HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOLING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SMALL
HAIL.
..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 09/03/2008
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