Wednesday, September 10, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110021
SWODY1
SPC AC 110018

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AZ...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IS ADVECTING NEWD
INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER MT/WY. CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF THIS
LEAD FEATURE OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE ALONG N-S WIND SHIFT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE UPWARD GROWTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS LLJ INCREASES AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL ZONE. SHEAR PROFILES
SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STRUCTURES...AND PERHAPS A FEW
ROTATING DEEPER UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT LINEAR
STRUCTURE THAT IS EVOLVING ALONG THE SURGING FRONT...DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS SHOULD NOT BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT BUT RATHER EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE STRONGER FORCED ZONE OF CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE AS IT EVOLVES AND PROGRESSES ACROSS
NEB INTO SRN SD THIS EVENING.

...AZ...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN MOIST...DEEP SWLY FLOW
REGIME ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO SERN AZ. THIS ACTIVITY HAS OVERTURNED
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THROUGH CONVECTIVE PRECESSES.
HOWEVER...MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN AZ WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE YET TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY FEED RENEWED STRONG UPDRAFTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG
THE WRN PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS...ESPECIALLY OVER PIMA/PINAL COUNTIES. STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DOWNBURSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLY GIVEN THE ROUGHLY 40F
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WITHIN THE SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENT.

..DARROW.. 09/11/2008

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