SWODY1
SPC AC 281258
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2008
VALID 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB...
...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND SK/MB TROUGH DEVELOPS SE INTO THE
NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY. FARTHER E...UPR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN/SHEAR NEWD OVER THE NERN U.S. AS HRCN KYLE ACCELERATES NNE
TOWARD THE BAY OF FUNDY.
...NEB/MID MO VLY...
COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING SK/MB IMPULSE
WILL REACH THE ERN DAKS/NW NEB BY LATE IN THE DAY. TSTMS SHOULD
FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN ERN SD/SW MN...AND ALONG LEE TROUGH
ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL NEB...AS HEATING AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BREACH
FAIRLY STOUT EML CAP.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED...BUT WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS
WEAK FRONT THAT STALLED OVER KS YESTERDAY RETURNS NWD AS A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT. COMBINATION OF EML PLUME /STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES/
AND SUBSTANTIAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE...WITH A
MAXIMUM OVER CNTRL NEB.
ALTHOUGH MID/UPR LVL FLOW INITIALLY WILL BE RATHER WEAK...SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING...WITH 500 MB WNW FLOW APPROACHING 30
KTS. IN ADDITION...WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE MODEST IN
MAGNITUDE...WIND PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE TURNING WITH
HEIGHT.
OVERALL SETUP SUGGESTS LIKELIHOOD FOR SCTD STRONG MULTICELL STORMS
...ALONG WITH A FEW BRIEF SUPERCELLS. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF BOTH
SVR HAIL AND ISOLD DMGG WIND. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF MEAN
FLOW...DEVELOPING SWLY LLJ...AND ARRIVAL OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH
AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH FURTHER SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLD/MARGINAL SVR
HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH LATE EVE AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO
A CLUSTER THAT MOVES GENERALLY SE ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA.
...S FL...
A FEW STRONG DIURNAL STORMS MAY FORM WITH HEATING IN VERY
MOIST...MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS S FL.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 09/28/2008
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