SWODY1
SPC AC 151954
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2008
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY WRN RIDGING AND
ERN TROUGHING. UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH --
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN GULF S OF MOB/PNS AREA
-- IS BECOMING ZONALLY COMPRESSED AND SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH
PERIOD...BUT STILL MAY SUPPORT RELATIVELY ENHANCED GEN THUNDER
POTENTIAL INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE IN THAT REGION. FRONT IS ANALYZED
FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES SWWD OVER CAROLINAS TO MS RIVER MOUTH...AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SEWD OVER SRN PIEDMONT REGION
AND E-CENTRAL GULF COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.
...SERN CONUS...
POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST FOR SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
WITHIN SFC FRONTAL ZONE...AS WELL AS ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES IN WARM SECTOR. WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND RESULTANT
LACK OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CURTAIL POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER CAROLINAS WHERE 25-30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAY AID MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE FOR BRIEF INTERVALS.
HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS TOO ISOLATED AND MRGL TO WARRANT 5 PERCENT
OR HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES THIS FCST.
...SRN ROCKIES AND SW CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON
EITHER SIDE OF RIO GRANDE/SAN LUIS VALLEYS FROM SRN CO INTO NRN
NM...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MRGL/RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE HEATING AND WEAK CINH. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY SHARP DECLINE IN COVERAGE WITH ONSET OF SFC COOLING NEAR SUNSET.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT -- ALSO PREFERENTIALLY FAVORING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS -- IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND FARTHER SW ACROSS
PORTIONS SERN AZ AND SWRN NM. WEAK DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND LACK OF
MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE SVR THREAT IN BOTH AREAS.
..EDWARDS/KIS.. 09/15/2008
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