DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021718
SWODY2
SPC AC 021715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2008

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN LA...WRN MS...AR INTO
SRN MO...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASK IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF ONT AND JAMES BAY TOMORROW...AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW ALONG THE BC COAST DIGS SEWD INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF AK.

AT THE SURFACE...A NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AREA. LATEST FORECASTS FROM NHC INDICATE
THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD FROM EXTREME NERN TX
INTO EXTREME SERN OK.

...NRN LA/WRN MS/AR INTO SRN MO...
ALTHOUGH THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH
TIME...A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN
THE ERN AND NRN SECTIONS OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. MODEL
FORECASTS OF 40-50 KT WINDS IN THE 1-4 KM AGL LAYER AND VEERING
PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IN THE
LOWEST 1 KM AGL. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
LIMITING THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF STRONGER
DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION MAY LOCALLY OCCUR DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOP. SUFFICIENT CAPE
AND VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES COUPLED WITH LOW LCL
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAINLY
IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

FARTHER NORTH INTO SRN MO/EXTREME NRN AR...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE NRN PART OF THE REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL AGAIN LIMIT
INSTABILITY...VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL
ENHANCE THE INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS THAT CAN FORM IN THIS
AREA. STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..WEISS.. 09/02/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.