SWODY2
SPC AC 080548
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT MON SEP 08 2008
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HALF OF FL AND THE
FL KEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...AND THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST
INVOF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES -- SHOULD DEEPEN RAPIDLY WHILE MOVING
NEWD ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD/SWWD FROM THIS LOW WILL ALSO SHIFT
EWD...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY...AND THEN MOVING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS YIELDING LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE
HURRICANE IKE MOVES WNWWD INTO THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
...THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE
EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS...AS
THE FRONT STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE CLOUDS/ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
SUGGESTS THAT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
THE GREATEST THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO EXIST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION
OF DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. ACROSS
THIS REGION...500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE AND 40 TO 60 KT
MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS SOME HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL.
FARTHER WSWWD ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...AND SWD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF MODEST SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT A LOWER-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS.
...SRN HALF OF FL AND THE KEYS...
LATEST NHC FORECASTS DEPICT HURRICANE IKE OVER WRN CUBA AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE CENTER OF THE STORM EMERGING OVER OPEN GULF
WATER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. FROM THERE...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING WNWWD AWAY FROM CUBA/FL AND INTO THE ERN GULF.
WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IKE WILL NOT MAKE LANDFALL OVER FL/THE
KEYS...THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM -- WHERE SHEAR IS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS -- WILL AFFECT S FL AND THE KEYS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING
IKE...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK/5% SEVERE PROBABILITY TO INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..GOSS.. 09/08/2008
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