Thursday, September 11, 2008

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 110558
SWODY2
SPC AC 110557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TX/SWRN LA COASTS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES/TOWARD THE
PLAINS STATES THIS PERIOD..WITH WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONT FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S./MIDWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...HURRICANE IKE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
WRN GULF...EVENTUALLY MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE TX COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE.

...TX /SWRN LA COASTAL REGION...
WHILE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY CONTINUES TO EXIST...LATEST NHC
FORECAST DEPICTS IKE MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST
LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...AND THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE
STORM -- WHICH INCLUDES THE ZONE OF MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT -- BEGINS AFFECTING THE TX/LA
COASTS...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE. THUS -- WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK FOR TORNADOES THIS FORECAST -- ACROSS A
LARGE AREA INCLUDING THE ENTIRE TX COAST AND INTO SRN LA TO ACCOUNT
FOR STORM TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

...OH VALLEY WSWWD ACROSS OK/W TX/SERN NM...
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLING SLOWLY SEWD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...OVERALL
INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE HINDERED BY WEAK INSTABILITY
ARISING FROM WIDESPREAD WEAK/NEARLY-MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...AND ALSO LIMITED AS A RESULT OF GENERALLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. WHILE DEGREE OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY MAY LOCALLY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS -- AND THUS LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE MAINTAINED -- ANY THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND
SHORT-LIVED...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

..GOSS.. 09/11/2008

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