SWODY2
SPC AC 151720
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...NRN STREAM PATTERN FCST TO DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT
AND SHIFT EWD BY END OF PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OH VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF SEWD MOVING
UPPER HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER NRN GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR PACIFIC NW
REGIONS. THIS HIGH SHOULD MOVE/REDEVELOP SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH DAY-2. SHORTWAVE TROUGH --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN -- WILL MOVE EWD
FROM WRN OH/ERN LOWER MI AREA AT 16/12Z TO OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND BY
17/12Z...WHILE WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY. DIFFUSE UPPER TROUGHING WILL
LINGER FROM SRN APPALACHIANS SWWD ACROSS MS DELTA AND WRN GULF COAST
AREAS...THEN WWD OVER SW TX. CURRENTLY CUT-OFF UPPER LOW --
ANALYZED WELL OFFSHORE CENTRAL CA NEAR 37N129W -- SHOULD DEVOLVE TO
OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS COASTAL NRN CA LATE THIS
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER CYCLOGENESIS TO ITS NW.
AT SFC...COLD FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING SWWD FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS SERN CONUS THROUGH
PERIOD...SETTLING IN NE-SW ALIGNMENT ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS
REGION...NRN FL AND NERN GULF.
...SERN CONUS...
SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF RESIDUAL
FRONTAL ZONE. WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIKELIHOOD OF
EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER AND EMBEDDED PRECIP WILL LIMIT
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...EXPECT THOSE FACTORS TO BE OFFSET BY POCKETS OF
SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING WITH DEW POINTS 70S F...TO YIELD MLCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND RESULTANT LACK OF
SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL.
...INTERIOR PACIFIC STATES...GREAT BASIN...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY DURING
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT STG SFC HEATING...WEAK
CINH...STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND POCKETS OF AT LEAST
MRGLLY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT HIGH BASED
CB...PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2008
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