Wednesday, September 17, 2008

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170553
SWODY2
SPC AC 170552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FCST...
HIGHEST AMPLITUDE/STRONGEST WLYS WILL REMAIN OVER CANADA ON THU WITH
A BENIGN UPR FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE STATES. SRN EXTENT OF AN ERN
CANADIAN POLAR TROUGH...MERELY A SHEAR AXIS/COLD TROUGH ALOFT...IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. INITIAL SURGE OF CP AIR THAT FOLLOWED IKE WILL MAKE IT
TO CNTRL FL BY THU AFTN. THE FRONT AND SEA/LAKE-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL BE FOCI FOR DIURNALLY-BASED TSTMS OVER THE FL PENINSULA THU
AFTN/EVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
WEDNESDAY...BUT ISOLD STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER CNTRL/SRN FL AMIDST HIGHER PWAT
VALUES.

OTHERWISE...MAIN PORTION OF A NEGATIVE-TILT UPR WAVE OVER NRN CA
TODAY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W ON THURSDAY WITHIN A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE AXIS. SRN PARTS OF THE SAME TROUGH...ALBEIT
MUCH WEAKER...WILL TEND TO UNDERCUT THE WRN UPR RIDGE...LIKELY
ENHANCING HIGHER TERRAIN TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN GRT
BASIN AND THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES.

A POLAR WAVE EJECTING FROM AN ALASKAN UPR LOW WILL AMPLIFY OVER
YUKON AND DIG INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY CARRY THE LEE-TROUGH EWD INTO PARTS OF ND AND NW MN BY LATE
THU AFTN. PALTRY MOISTURE RETURN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND WEAK UPR
SUPPORT ARGUE AGAINST TSTMS ALONG MOST OF THE TROUGH DURING THE
AFTN/EVE. OVERNIGHT...A FEW ELEVATED NON-SVR TSTMS ARE PROBABLE IN
FROM ERN ND...NRN MN AND THE LKSUP AREA ALONG THE AXIS OF A 30-35 KT
SWLY LLJ TIED TO THE CANADIAN DISTURBANCE. HIGHER PROBABILITIES
WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO.

..RACY.. 09/17/2008

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