DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181649
SWODY2
SPC AC 181649

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
1149 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED ON FRIDAY WITH
PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS WELL NORTH INTO CANADA WITH WEAKER SRN AND
SUB-TROPICAL BRANCHES EXISTING OVER THE STATES. WITHIN THE
LWR-48...MOST CONVECTIVE CONCERNS WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE UPR LOW
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW/INTER MOUNTAIN REGION AND THE SUBTROPICAL
IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE MID/LWR MS VLY REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

...FOUR CORNERS/NWRN CONUS...
UPPER LOW IN PAC NW WILL OPEN AND PUSH ESEWARD INTO INTER MOUNTAIN
WEST AND FOUR CORNERS AREA AS MAIN RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND SHARPENS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEST DIFFLUENT
FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN FRIDAY AFTN WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS ACROSS
NRN PARTS OF CA/NV NWD INTO PARTS OF ORE. THESE STORMS MAY LAST
WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS THEY MOVE NEWD THROUGH ID AND PERHAPS NRN UT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTING NWWD FROM THE DESERT
SW. STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND LATER OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO
INTRODUCE SVR PROBABILITIES.

...LWR MS VLY/FL COAST...
WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY
REGION AHEAD OF THE SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
STRONGEST TSTMS WILL FAVOR OFFSHORE WATERS AND NEAR CSTL SRN LA
AMIDST MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. RETURN FLOW FROM THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SAME
NORTH GULF BOUNDARY FOR MOST OF PENINSULAR FLORIDA. IN THE EVENT
THAT THE CSTL FRONT MOVES FARTHER N THAN EXPECTED...PARTS OF SRN LA
MAY NEED LOW SVR PROBABILITIES IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.

...WSTRN GREAT LAKES...
LOCAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET TO THE NORTH SHOULD
ENABLE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
BORDERING STATES. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE AND SHORT-LIVED.

..AFWA.. 09/18/2008

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