SWODY2
SPC AC 231728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE NRN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLNS EJECTS INTO CANADA.
IN ITS WAKE...WEAK RIDGING WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE
ROCKIES AND PLNS BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE DIGS INTO THE PAC NW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TO THE S...BAGGY UPR TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN CONUS/WRN
ATLC BASIN WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SERN STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IN THE LWR-LVLS...THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING THE NRN PLNS WAVE WILL
BECOME ILL-DEFINED OVER THE CNTRL GRTLKS...MIDWEST...CNTRL PLNS
REGIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTN. TAIL-END OF THE FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AS
A WARM FRONT AND SURGE NWD TOWARD THE NRN PLNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
...CNTRL STATES....
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE SFC FRONT FROM PARTS
OF WI SWWD INTO KS AND THE SRN HIGH PLNS WEDNESDAY AFTN.
HEATING...60S SFC DEW POINTS AND MODEST LOW AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL BOOST MLCAPES INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. BUT...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AS THE REGION BECOMES REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER
WLYS ALONG/N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS SUCH...PULSE MULTICELL TSTM
MODES WILL BE COMMON WITH PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. A CLUSTER
OR TWO OF ELEVATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP AFTER DARK FROM NW KS NEWD
INTO ERN SD/SW MN WITHIN STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
...CSTL CAROLINAS...
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE EXISTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CLOSED LOW FEATURE AND RESULTS IN LWR THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
NNELY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FEATURE APCHS THE CSTL
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS ALSO PSBL THAT MORE ROBUST
ENVELOPE OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY MAY MOVE WWD TOWARD THE CST LATER
WEDNESDAY IF THE MORE VIGOROUS WRN SOLUTIONS VERIFY. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. ATTM...WILL
NOT INCLUDE SVR PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
..RACY.. 09/23/2008
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