Wednesday, September 3, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2209

ACUS11 KWNS 030850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030849
MSZ000-LAZ000-031045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH ERN LA AND SW MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 884...

VALID 030849Z - 031045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 884 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES FROM S CNTRL THROUGH ERN LA
AND SW MS. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY FROM 2-3
INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WAS OVER EXTREME SW AR MOVING VERY SLOWLY NWWD.
BANDS OF CONVECTION REMAIN CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR
FROM SW LA NEWD THROUGH ERN LA AND WRN MS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE PRIMARILY SITUATED
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND EXTENDING THROUGH 850 MB ACCORDING TO
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CIRCULATION IN ARC ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS FROM ERN LA
THROUGH WRN MS AND NWWD THROUGH AR. INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LIMITED
OVER THE REGION BUT IS GREATER OVER SRN LA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
GULF WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF CAPE AND 0-1 KM SHEAR EXISTS. A
FEW SEMI-DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED OVER S
CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL LA.

VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE BAND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRAIN NEWD ALONG THE SAME PATH. THIS AND VERY MOIST PROFILES WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE CORRIDOR FROM ERN LA THROUGH WRN MS THIS
MORNING.

..DIAL.. 09/03/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

32459083 31679078 30569137 30349201 30529290 30989289
31659203 32259177 32709136

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