Wednesday, September 3, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2210

ACUS11 KWNS 031542
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031542
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-031745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/E LA...W MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 885...

VALID 031542Z - 031745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 885 CONTINUES.

1000 MB LOW SE OF IDABEL OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY OR MOVE
VERY SLOWLY NNE THROUGH THIS AFTN. PERSISTENT BAND OF DEEPER
CONFLUENCE EXTENDS WELL E OF THE LOW...ARCING FROM VCNTY KLIT SEWD
TO KGLH THEN SWD ALONG THE MS RVR AND SWWD TO EAST OF KLCH. IT IS
TOUGH TO ASSESS LLVL SHEAR PROFILES SUBJECTIVELY GIVEN LACK OF
PROFILER DATA VCNTY THE CONFLUENCE BAND. WHAT IS MORE CLEAR IS THE
FACT THAT SHEAR PROFILES AT SLIDELL AND JACKSON HAVE DECREASED
GRADUALLY OVER THE PAST 24-HRS AS THE LOW AND ASSOCD WIND FIELDS
HAVE WEAKENED. BUT...THERE APPEARS TO BE A ZONE EXTENDING FROM
ECNTRL AR SWD...STRADDLING THE MS RVR AND INTO THE KBTR-KLFT REGION
WHERE STRONGER LLVL SHEAR EXISTS. OBVIOUSLY...STRONGER BUOYANCY
WILL BE RELEGATED WELL SOUTH...GENERALLY FROM NE LA/WC MS SWD TO THE
GULF CST. THUS...BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE CONFLUENCE BAND SHIFTS
SLOWLY ENE INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH.
ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FARTHER E/NE WITH TIME THIS
AFTN.

..RACY.. 09/03/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

30799318 33779134 34069059 32939012 31319040 29709098
29609244 29869348

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