SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050934
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-051200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 AM CDT FRI SEP 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL KS...NWRN OK...ERN PORTIONS
TX/OK PANHANDLES.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 050934Z - 051200Z
ISOLATED MRGLLY SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS THIS
REGION DURING REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO MRGL/SPORADIC FOR WW.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRENGTHENING SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD
ACROSS EXTREME NWRN KS AND E-CENTRAL CO. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ON
BOTH SIDES OF FRONT WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT SFC-BASED
CONVECTION DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY ABOVE SFC APPEARS TO INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT AWAY FROM
FRONT...ACROSS SWRN KS AND ESPECIALLY INTO TX PANHANDLE. THIS
TENDENCY IS RELATED TO LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH 30-40 KT LLJ THAT IS EVIDENT IN VWP FROM AMA/CVS
AREAS. LLJ...ALREADY SOMEWHAT UNDERFORECAST BY RUC...IS PROGGED TO
VEER SOMEWHAT THROUGH 12Z AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN WY AND N-CENTRAL CO -- MOVES
THROUGH BASE OF SYNOPTIC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS
PROCESS WILL SHIFT MOST FAVORABLE PLUME OF
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT EWD ACROSS TX/OK PANHANDLES AND
SWRN KS...AND WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING OF EXISTING
CONVECTIVE REGIME SWD OVER PANHANDLES. ACTIVITY THEN SHOULD MOVE
EWD/ENEWD ACROSS SWRN KS...ERN PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK. ELEVATED
MUCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE
TO LESS THAN 250 J/KG OVER W-CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL KS...DIMINISHING WITH
EWD AND NWD EXTENT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 35-45 KT WILL
FAVOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN MOST
PERSISTENT/INTENSE CELLS.
..EDWARDS.. 09/05/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...
38360173 38530035 38419918 38389890 38199853 37969833
37429824 36849845 35979894 35449968 35140034 35430123
36310172 37240150 37910173
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