SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061509
NYZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-061615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2227
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CDT SAT SEP 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/DELMARVA...NJ...LONG ISLAND
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 890...
VALID 061509Z - 061615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 890 CONTINUES.
A NEW WW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED TO THE NE OF WW 890. LATEST
NHC GUIDANCE INDICATED A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE LEFT FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT /FROM SERN DE TO COASTAL NJ/ AS HANNA TRACKS NEWD
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF NEW OUTER BAND DEVELOPMENT
THUS FAR WITHIN ERN SEMI-CIRCLE ARE PRECLUDING THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW
WW AT THIS TIME.
AT 14Z...REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED T.S. HANNA
CENTERED OVER SERN VA /GREENSVILLE COUNTY/...WITH LATEST NHC TRACK
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT MOST OF THE FRONT RIGHT QUADRANT OF HANNA
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. WSR-88D VWP DATA AT DOV SHOWED LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAD BACKED TO ESELY WITH STRENGTHENING WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS SAME TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEWD ACROSS NJ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF
HANNA WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH VALUES 250+
M2/S2/. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NJ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND ALREADY
HAS SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG.
THE THERMODYNAMICS/KINEMATICS WITH HANNA WOULD SUGGEST THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NJ TO LONG ISLAND WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...A DRY SLOT CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN THE
CENTER OF HANNA AND A SINGLE OUTER BAND WHICH EXTENDED SSEWD FROM
DELMARVA TO OFFSHORE THE NC COAST APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE
INTENSITY OF THE OUTER BAND /I.E. WARMING CLOUD TOPS/ AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTIVE BANDS WITHIN THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THIS DRY AIR MAY BE THE MAIN REASON TO PRECLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.
..PETERS.. 09/06/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
36517510 37347572 38057642 38727612 39387539 40297428
40707358 40787292 40647247 39887280 38797402 36797479
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