SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081017
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-081245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 AM CDT MON SEP 08 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN KS...NWRN MO.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 081017Z - 081245Z
EPISODIC LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z IN BAND OF
TSTMS -- INITIALLY NEAR MHK-MKC LINE AND MOVING NEWD APPROXIMATELY
15 KT.
BELT OF STG-SVR TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA
REGIME...WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC OCCURS ALONG OR VERY NEAR
850 MB WARM FRONT. WHILE ACTIVITY REMAINS E OF STRONGEST LLJ --
WHICH IS ESTIMATED AT 35-40 KT OVER CENTRAL KS BASED ON VWP AND FCST
SOUNDINGS -- VEERING OF LLJ AND RESULTANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND NEWD MOTION OF TSTMS IN THIS BAND
THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE FARTHER W...GENERALLY N OF I-70 -- IN ADVANCE OF NON-SEVERE
MCS MOVING EWD FROM AREA FORMERLY COVERED BY WW 891...WHERE
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER DURING NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES WILL SUPPORT INTERMITTENT STORM ROTATION IN RELATIVELY
DISCRETE/PERSISTENT CELLS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED HAIL THREAT.
CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 12Z AS LLJ AND RELATED
STORM-RELATIVE LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN.
..EDWARDS.. 09/08/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
38829464 39199735 39189878 39729808 40229531 39919401
39179372 38949406
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment