SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112200
MOZ000-ARZ000-112300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 112200Z - 112300Z
A RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MO /AND PERHAPS NORTHERN AR/...HOWEVER A WATCH
IS UNLIKELY.
SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT MODERATE BOUTS OF LOW LEVEL
ROTATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
FOCUSED ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING WITHIN A VERY MOIST TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS WITH LOWER 70S F
DEWPOINTS AND WELL-ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8
INCHES PER THIS MORNINGS 12Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM SPRINGFIELD. WSR-88D
DERIVED WINDS FROM SPRINGFIELD AND THE CONWAY MO PROFILER REFLECT
0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 15 KT WITH 0-1 KM SRH PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 100
M2/S2...WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES
WITHIN SUCH A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
DIMINISH THE THREAT FURTHER TOWARD SUNSET. THE EXPECTED
BRIEF/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
WATCH ISSUANCE.
..GUYER.. 09/11/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
36709405 37259186 37019016 36359018 35629422
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